In Hunter v. United States, 608 U. S. ____ (2026), SC here and GS here [to come], the Court held (from syllabus):
An agreement [plea agreement] not to appeal a sentence is unenforceable when it would result in a miscarriage of justice—meaning, when it would leave in place the kind of egregious error that would bring the judicial system into disrepute.
That’s a broadly stated general rule that will be fleshed out in its application. However, I will not discuss the holding further. Rather, I focus on a misleading statement made by Justice Thomas in his solo dissent that states a common misconception about plea bargaining.
Justice Thomas states (Slip Op. 39 of pdf, indicating p. 1 of dissent here, emphasis supplied by JAT):
Thanks to the [plea] agreement, Hunter received a 51-month prison term, followed by three years of supervised release, less than 2% of the prison time to which the indictment exposed him.
Added 6/21/26 2:30pm: Justice Thomas makes the statement to explain what the benefit of the bargain was for Hunter in order to support his [Thomas'] claim that the agreement appeal waiver should be binding.
No competent lawyer negotiating the plea would have negotiated against the maximum suggested in Justice Thomas’ statement; rather they would have negotiated against the sentence ranges provided by the Guidelines. I demonstrate with a simple example:
Assume that a taxpayer is convicted of 3 counts of tax evasion, with each count carrying a 5-year maximum sentence. In theory, that might permit "stacking" to reach the maximum sentence of 15 years if convicted of all counts. In fact, the Guidelines Offense Level maximums range from 6 months for tax losses from $2,500 or less to 36 for more than $550 million. Assuming no other adjustments (such as criminal history, etc.), looking at the maximum Offense Level of 36, the Guidelines Sentencing Table maximum range is 188-185 months (about 16 years). Most tax evasion convictions involve tax loss far less than $550 million, so the realistic range is far less than 25 years.
I illustrate with a more realistic tax loss example: Assume tax evasion loss of, say, $20 million (aggregate on 3 counts) producing a Guidelines Offense Level of 26 and Sentencing Table range of 63-78 months (about 5-6 years), again assuming no other adjustments.